House Sales Are Down Nearly Everywhere Except Saskatchewan… For Now

You’ve heard the media news full of doom and gloom everywhere: Falling home prices, less home sales across the board, and houses taking longer to sell.

This is true when we look at Canadian averages as a whole, but when we isolate Saskatchewan-based data, we see very quickly that we are in a somewhat protected bubble in our province. Lucky us!

Here in SK, while we do follow the trends of the national market, we do not see the same high high’s and low low’s that markets such as Vancouver and Toronto do. This flatter curve has allowed us to remain among the most affordable and accessible markets in Canada, giving buyers confidence in knowing that purchasing here is less risky than in more volatile markets.

The Canadian Context

The main forces driving the national shift are economic changes and uncertainties coming from the actions of the US. Times like these (such as Covid, periods of high inflation, and now tariffs) often see people become immobile, waiting to see what may happen. And truly, no one ever knows much except that we are getting really good at living through ‘unprecedented times’.

However, what we do know is that by observing historical data and market trends, the market always ebbs and flows, dips and recovers as many forces constantly compete in a attempt to achieve balance. Likewise, when we see extreme buyer or extreme seller markets prevail for some time, we also can expect that the pendulum will eventually swing the other way.

What’s Different in Saskatchewan?

Currently, we still have a real estate context full of many buyers needing and actively working to secure homes. We remain a popular location for folks already living here, first-timer buyers looking to (smartly) start building some equity today, and new residents who are moving in from other places in the country,

At this very moment, we are seeing many home sell over and above their asking prices; sometimes even 50K or higher. In combination with the aforementioned factors, we are in full-swing spring market and sales are stronger than ever.

What Does This Mean For Us?

Simply put, now is an excellent time to sell and there is no doubt about that. If you are looking to move along investments, condos, or right-size your living situation, the time is right. This is great news for now!

But, as we’ve discussed, politics do evolve and different policies will likely come into place that aim to support a more balanced housing market. Although we can never quite predict the moment when we reach the pinnacle of maximum sale prices (this is very much a crystal-ball type of question), it is very, very reasonable to expect that this seller’s market, although still very strong, is not here to stay forever.

Below are some snapshots from The Canadian Real Estate Association’s market forecasts, and adjustments made based on impacts of unforeseen factors.

Initial Annual Projected Percentage Change for Home Sales, made in January (pre-tariff announcement); Canada was expected to rise 2.9% overall, with SK expected to rise 2.3%.

Adjusted Annual Projected Percentage Change for Home Sales, made post-tariff implementation, with Canada now expected to rise only 1.2%, and SK only 0.3%.

For The Buyers Right Now - Should You Wait to Purchase??

No, this does not mean you should wait to purchase if you are ready! There is no present indication that a heavy Buyer’s Market is anywhere near at all, even if we do move towards a more balanced market.

It is key to remember that when house prices fall, we typically see interest rates rise. Plus, the sooner you can begin paying into your own investment instead of someone else’s rent, the sooner you start securing and growing your own assets. Keep your eye on your prize and your goals for the future!

And If You Are A Current Homeowner Looking to Make A Move…

Should you wait? Here’s my take.

When you are planning to buy in the same market you are selling in, everything is all relative. Your purchase price will rise and fall the same way your projected sale price will. What is not relative to the market pricing is your need to have more bedrooms/less stairs/a true office space/insert your personal need here.

I do not have a crystal ball, but in my opinion, I would expect there is one genre of housing that will remain an exception to this rule: Any home attractive to those who are looking to downsize/rightsize. I’m talking about accessible bungalows, single-level townhomes with attached garages, and 2+ bedroom-apartments with elevators and underground parking. The demographic demanding these homes is only continuing to grow, keeping competition strong on these styles of homes. I expect these homes will retain excellent resale value for this reason.

As always, my best advice is to keep your eye on your long-term outcome. How long do you plan on staying in your next home? What pain points in your life will moving solve for you? The number one thing to focus on is always, always that any move you make should improve your quality of life and living. No exceptions!

Reach out and let’s crunch your numbers. We can break the math down to see what things truly look like for you! I’m looking so forward to hearing from you.